Buch | Kapitel
Overconfidence in predictions as an effect of desirability bias
pp. 163-180
Abstrakt
Most people hold unrealistic positive beliefs about their personal skills, their knowledge (Fischoff, Slovic, & Lichtenstein, 1977), and their possibilities to overcome the performance of other individuals (Weinstein, 1980). This general tendency, called overconfidence, is a stable and pervasive finding both in many real-life domains and in several experimental settings. People are overconfident about their driving skills (Svenson, 1981), about their ability as basketball players (McGraw, Mellers, & Ritov, 2004), about their competence in financial and managerial problems (Camerer & Lovallo, 1999; Mahajan, 1992), and about their general knowledge (Juslin, 1994; Harvey, 1997). This systematic overestimation of one's own capabilities and probabilities of success can have important consequences, and sometimes results in suboptimal decisions.
Publication details
Published in:
Abdellaoui Mohammed, Hey John D. (2008) Advances in decision making under risk and uncertainty. Dordrecht, Springer.
Seiten: 163-180
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-68437-4_11
Referenz:
Giardini F., et al. (2008) „Overconfidence in predictions as an effect of desirability bias“, In: M. Abdellaoui & J. D. Hey (eds.), Advances in decision making under risk and uncertainty, Dordrecht, Springer, 163–180.