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236703

Reasoning about the future

doom and beauty

Dennis Dieks

pp. 427-439


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Abstrakt

According to the Doomsday Argument we have to rethink the probabilities we assign to a soon or not so soon extinction of mankind when we realize that we are living now, rather early in the history of mankind. Sleeping Beauty finds herself in a similar predicament: on learning the date of her first awakening, she is asked to re-evaluate the probabilities of her two possible future scenarios.

Publication details

Published in:

Hartmann Stephan, Bovens Luc (2007) Bayesian epistemology. Synthese 156 (3).

Seiten: 427-439

DOI: 10.1007/s11229-006-9132-y

Referenz:

Dieks Dennis (2007) „Reasoning about the future: doom and beauty“. Synthese 156 (3), 427–439.